Forecast tax revenues slump significantly

In this and the following four years, the public coffers must expect a combined tax shortfall of around EUR 80 billion.

According to the results of the latest tax estimate, tax revenues for the federal, state and local governments will develop worse this year than expected in the October estimate. The tax authorities must also expect significantly lower tax revenue in subsequent years. Compared to the October 2023 forecast, tax revenue will be around €16 billion lower on average each year. The federal budget will have to shoulder the lion's share of this revenue shortfall. Compared to the October estimate, the weak economy means that almost all high-revenue tax types will see a drop in revenue. Only the expected revenue from the flat-rate withholding tax has been revised upwards. This reflects the interest income in Germany, which has increased significantly more than previously assumed.